US–Israel joint operation Feb 2026 decapitated Iranian supreme leadership. Naval blockade removed Iranian crude from global markets. Successor factions contesting power with no unified command structure emerging.
Monitor: faction consolidation, proxy reactivation in Lebanon/Yemen, oil return-to-market timeline.
Strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Mar 2, 2026 instantly removed 20% of global LNG capacity. QatarEnergy has not confirmed repair timeline. Asia LNG spot price surge ongoing.
Monitor: repair assessment, Qatar diplomatic posture, China/Japan LNG import alternatives.
120 verified Ukraine strikes 2025–Apr 2026 targeting Russian oil infrastructure. 81 confirmed refinery attacks causing $1.3B physical damage and $13B in lost profits. Active US shadow fleet seizure operations compressing delivery capacity.
Monitor: fleet seizure pace, India/China absorption of discounted Russian crude, refinery rebuild attempts.
Maduro captured Jan 3, 2026 in US military operation. Venezuelan oil exports now under US operational control. Defense Production Act invoked Mar 2026 — Texas crude flowing to California at 1.5M BPD, replacing foreign imports. China/Russia/Cuba supply routes disrupted.
Monitor: successor government formation, PDVSA operational status, China response to supply disruption.
All four strategic straits now under direct US influence or control. Philippines/Indonesia defensive pacts (Apr 2026) gate the Strait of Malacca — the transit point for 60% of China's oil imports. Morocco deal (Apr 17) secures Gibraltar. Iranian naval degradation controls Hormuz.
Monitor: China naval response in South China Sea, Morocco deal ratification, Indonesia domestic political stability.
United States is now the world's only high-volume LNG exporter following removal of all primary alternatives within a 90-day window (Jan–Mar 2026). Maritime Action Plan requires tanker-building in America as condition of energy deals — deliberate re-industrialization mechanism. $33B in bilateral energy/trade deals signed Apr 2026.
Monitor: Greenland resource access negotiations, tanker-build compliance, OPEC+ response, EU energy dependence metrics.
| Strait | Method | Strategic Value | Status | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Malacca | Philippines + Indonesia defensive pacts (Apr 2026) | 60% of China's oil transits here | CONTROLLED | Indonesia political stability |
| Strait of Gibraltar | Morocco deal Apr 17, 2026 | Mediterranean trade control | SECURED | Morocco ratification pending |
| Strait of Hormuz | Iranian naval degradation | Gulf export corridor | MONITORING | Faction reactivation risk |
| Panama Canal | Cooperation agreements | Western Hemisphere transit | ONGOING | Chinese port operator presence |